Yep the GOM and Caribbean are favorable, but I dont think we are going to see activity start to pick up until after the 20th of August I am going with right around the 20th. When we are experiencing quiet early Augusts, models are notorious for failing to pick up pattern changes. Dorian in 2019 is ...

Very warm water in the Gulf. You don't see 31C water in the Gulf very often. Caribbean looks pretty favorable too.

DoctorMu i was reading an article, and apparently CS only officially recorded a total of 0.21 inches of rain for July, marking the driest July in CS since 1882 (before CS of course lol) In fact, that 0.21 inch total is actually for both this past June and July (so far): only .01 inches of rain this...

jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 2:23 pm Storms struggling so far…

It feels like the weather has been the same for the past 3-4 months. Obviously it hasn't, but it just feels so monotonous. So weird.

The August 1st-5th time frame might be one to watch, the GFS including its latest 18z run is hinting at some sort of tropical entity in the western GOM, it is far out but just something interesting to “watch” Yep. It is flip-flopping right now on something. If it starts being consistent, and more m...

jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat Jul 23, 2022 2:11 pm Showers today are fast movers so far. Not gonna amount to much unless some real storms can congeal later on.

I managed to pick up 0.62 today. Most I have had in about a month!

Eh the Euro is the only model showing development, will say though we might not see much tropical activity for the whole month of august, the Atlantic basin is just not favorable right now, and that dry air looks to go no where at least in the firsr 2-3 weeks of august Most of the basin is unfavora...

Looks like trouble for someone.

While there is all the talk going about Florida, one thing we should all keep in mind is that this is not your typical Texas summer. It is much drier than average. My grass has tried to die for the third or fourth time this year. Most years, it never gets anywhere close to that dry. This pattern wil...

Saw this on Storm2k. Gotta keep an eye on the Gulf soon. What is concerning is look at all the W/WNW movement from many members.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 2:22 pm The 12z Euro towards the end of its run now shows a weak tropical wave in the GOM headed towards Texas fwiw

This is one of the best Euro runs I have seen in a while. The ridge split is definitely going to help us out.

The Latest GFS is trending wetter over the next 10-12 days, models are in agreement that the high will break up next week, leasing to daily rain chances, id say about 30-40% right now Correct. The 12zGFS also continues this juicer trend. You can see the Gulf is finally starting to wake up with deep...

captainbarbossa19 a stronger bermuda ridge would tend to steer systems more towards the GOM right? It depends more on where the storm is located. Let's just say a storm to its south will not be turning north, so it would likely head towards the GOM. Edit: If it's too far south though, it could cras...

This is definitely NOT 2011...You can see the significant difference in the 2011 vs 2022 drought monitor. Maybe some hope for us locally of a pattern change.We'll see.. I said this earlier, but this year is much closer to 2008. Check it out: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20080715/20080715...

12z GFS is showing a strong Bermuda ridge developing towards days 7-10. Definitely a more alarming pattern heading towards peak season.

This summer is worse than 2011 IMO, you know its bad when you’re hoping for a weak tropical storm/ hurricane in the coming weeks, active phase of the MJO is set to cross into the Atlantic basin next week, will see if anything happens It’s not even close. By this time (mid July) in 2011 there was no...

We're almost at the climatological peak of summer. Hoping for a ridge breakdown next month at some point. Seasonal forcing should start to weaken the ridge soon. Sunset at my location was 8:22 two weeks ago. Today, it is 8:18. By August 1, it will be 8:10 and losing 1 minute of daylight or more aft...

We're almost at the climatological peak of summer. Hoping for a ridge breakdown next month at some point. Seasonal forcing should start to weaken the ridge soon. Sunset at my location was 8:22 two weeks ago. Today, it is 8:18. By August 1, it will be 8:10 and losing 1 minute of daylight or more afte...

Looking good for today. Hopefully the folks who missed out will get theirs today. 2008 is a decent drought analog but the summer and fall were very different because La Nina was gone - not the case this year. Mother Nature is about to go lights out this hurricane season - get ready!! Be careful wha...

Sadly it’s fizzling :( But my friends in SW Austin are about to get nailed again. All in all this is no 2011 situation. I agree and have been saying that for a while. This is a much drier than normal summer, but it's better than 2011. I remember my grass being all completely dead. This summer, it h...