Cpv17 bingo, and gotta watch next week with the remnants of 93L getting back over the gulf, looks like possibly further south in the gulf so something to watch, GFS briefly tries to close off a weak low before koving into texas, but honestly you make a good point, look at the ridge placement over th...

GFS/ Euro/ CMC all loop 93L around in the gulf again next week and bring more tropical moisture this way , also keep the big ridge far enough to our north to allow 93L ( part 2) to head toward texas

GFS, Euro/ CMC all have 93L going inland and making one gigantic loop back into the gulf again in a week and getting pushed west again, 93L might be around the gulf coast for quite some time

Mid level center is over the water, id almost expect we are getting a reconnaissance flight sometime tommorow, given 93L’s small size, i wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if this organizes more than what the models see happening

Big suck is coming, noaas 6-10 and 8-14 day temperatures outlook look absolutely

Can’t complain too much, new eventually the heat ridge was going to comeback, we do need a break from the rain though, especially central texas

View from the Oasis at Lake Travis!

Cpv17 probably, but it also depends on how strong ridging is to the north, heck the 18z ICON went into SW lousiana but still made a hook left towards texas, dont think this will have a clean escape route north as the jet stream stays pretty far north

18z UKMET only goes out 66 hours but already has a developing system moving west in the gulf in 3 days or so, the UKMET is generally a model the NHC puts weight into so this is definitely something to watch when this model shows development

Cpv17 yep, one thing im noticing is that the GFS keeps initializing the disturbance too weak ( underestimating convection) take that as you will, that could matter largely when this gets into the gulf

Don’t like seeing the subtropical ridge building into the eastern gulf on models and ensembles, that would push potential “ Dexter” further west into the central and even western gulf, we need to watch this, the disturbance itself looks pretty healthy on IR , environmental conditions in the gulf do ...

Cpv17 yup, its worth watching given its done a pretty good job with seeing development the last couple of seasons

00z ICON

sambucol around the 18th since the model only goes out 7 days

12z UKMET. has some development near the lousiana/ texas border

Watching the gulf in week 2

DoctorMu one thing ive noticed in the models this summer, is that they have consistently been over doing ridging over texas, especially the GFS with its bog “ death ridge” idea lol, dont wanna jinx it, but definitely hope that trend of over doing ridging continues for the rest of summer lol

Even into the third week of july, the GFS keeps things on the active side down around here , heck the CMC/ GFS overnight guidance both have a surprisingly strong july cold front in the 8-10 day window lol

Unfortunately storms are agaib forming in the absolute worst areas possible, kerrville might get hit hard again, this wet pattern can truely piss off for central texas, just absolutely gut wrenching to think more rain could fall in some of the hardest hit areas

Just my opinion , ive seen probably close to a foot and a half of rain over the last 1-2 months, cant even mow the lawn because the grass is still soggy, mosquitoes have been about as bad as it can get, i personally wouldn’t mind a couple weeks of dry weather