Yeah ita extremely normal for these tropical systems to have their convection wane at night but then refire up again , which is what I suspect will happen, I got a gut feeling this system is going to be better organized by the time we all wake up tommorow morning

Yeah thats what im worried about, I remember even when Imelda moved into North Texas it was still pulling up feeder banda off the gulf and into SE Texas, thinking this could a be a late friday- sunday event

Im just hoping this is a fast moving system and not a slow moving one like Imelda was, what are yalls thoughts on that?

Kingwood20 that 20% will probably be increasing in the next update, im 90% confident we will at least have a tropical depression folks

Oh I have pretty high confidence they will in the 8 pm update

Yep 18z GFS run is starting to come in line with the Euro and other modes, definitely seems to be trying to close off a circulation around matagorda bay

Looks like its taking on a comma shape! Definitely looks to be organizing as we speak

Thats at least a 80-90% probability of formation by the Euro model... This isnt looking good folks

Yeah this would be a huge blow to some areas, definitely have to watch this extremely closely

Yeah this could be another significant flood threat , I am growing very concerned now

Han Solo once said” I got a bad feeling about this”. I got that seem feeling right now in terms of this system in the gulf

That is true, and just when we thought we were in the clear , absolutely crazy

Rip76 Wind Shaer is high 30-35 knots, however this system is currently in a pocket of moderate to Low shear, so it definitely has a chance to devlope

Yeah Don I definitely think this showing some signs of organization, seems like convection is trying to fire around the area of cyclonic spin, definitely wouldnt be shocked to see if the NHC mentions this later

And juat when we thought thw flooding rains were done Mother Nature says “ But wait theres more’” this would be really bad if this system forms, a tropical depression or weak storm would only help to enhance heavy rain fall, definitely a very concerning potential situation

I domt think ive ever seen models all jump on board with a potential tropical system in one run and one day, absolutely crazy

I wouldnt be shocked if this ends up becoming a low end tropical storm, definitely am seeing aome good mid level rotation as wel just like DON said

Bro WTF this is only 2 days out. Very interesting we definitely gotta wstch this now

If we are talking about the tropical or non tropical area of storms in the gulf the. it probably could, I do see that this “area of interest” Is located more towards the west central gulf where water temps are around 81-84 degrees which is definitely conducive for development but wind shear is just ...

I think its possible they could, because I definitely do see a weak cyclonic spin within the complex of storms. Not out of the reap. of possibility