Question for those native to this part of Texas (my stomping grounds are all west…and beyond of I-35) and more knowledgeable. The Mexican desert has always been there (relatively speaking) but it seems as though its influence on capping here has substantially increased over time based on the comment...

Mid 90s in the big country down to Junction. My gosh that’s ridiculous. Bad fires in the panhandle.

Look out Livingston. Tornado Warning Updated warning text indicates spotter-observed tornado history. Clouds are hauling the mail, but not sure how many more discreet cell potential exists. Not going to take much to get something going. Agree on the windbag squall line. Gotta watch for embedded spi...

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 2:58 pm Nasty hodos this far in advance...

This. Classic tornadic supercell look. And that CAPE for this time of year, yikes.

Still working on getting a better handle on the actual sounding chart, but is that a bit of a cap I see between 850mb and 700mb?

One thing is true about Texas weather. Once it is stuck in a pattern, it is hard to break out. 99°F today. Allegedly normal temperatures in a week. FROPA + EPAC moisture FTW? Could be - but I'll believe it when I see it. This, anecdotally and (to my amateur mind) reality through history, seems to b...

Oh geez, now we’re under a Red Flag Warning. Lord, we need some rain. That’s some scary stuff. Especially north of Houston with all those pines. Not good and assets are all stretched thin. Watching the aviation assets just traversing the state is rough to see. Feel worse for the folks working hard ...

Keep an eye on the end of that line towards Smithville

Sleet out in the western burbs this morning.

It does feel a bit colder out. I wonder if the unmodified cold from the ice, etc. is starting to filter down into the area on those northly winds.

Brisk 3 degrees this morning on the Divide! It feels delicious! Perfect for skiing, and hopefully keeps pow from getting crunchy and icy. Saw it was -31 in Angel Fire yesterday…holy smokes I didn’t think that level of cold could reach into that part of the Sangre de Cristos. Speaking of crunchy/icy...

Sprinkles and a bit of drizzle out here in the Katy area, so those returns are juuuust barely making to ground level.

Would’ve been nuts to have a bit more moisture in place.

Don’t quite see front on the KIAH terminal radar (hopefully it’ll get picked up on approach).

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 6:37 pm

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 6:32 pm Frankly, the new upgraded GFS is useless. Stick to the Euro and Canadian and their ensembles for any sense of likely reality for a sensible forecast.

And there ya go….

LOL

Well that speaks pretty matter of fact.

Always good to see srain poke his head in from gorgeous Appalachia.

Sad state of affairs that we’re hoping and begging for a cool down…to anything below 70 in December. Meanwhile the rest of the state is at least generally in the upper 50s to low 60s at this 6:00 hour. What a crock. Shorts and sweat to do yard work…this is for the birds. MoCoWx, appreciate your piec...

Sure enough. Outflow visible on the KIAH terminal radar.

Hello darkness my old friend….

Donut holes and jinxes aside (I’m superstitious enough to believe), I’d be very curious as to what happened with that convection in relation to the greater metro from an actual science perspective. I know there are near impossible to predict mesoscale factors that play a big part, but that odd gap b...

Yep we west burbs got hosed big time. Hope there’s more tonight. Pretty darn disappointing

ETA: but glad for those that got some. Hope those in the brazos valley and folks like cromag cashed in

It's early and I'll be extremely glad to be wrong...but I'm also on the "no hope for today" bandwagon. That blob is staying decently far off the coast (drifting ever slowly slightly southwest??). Anything that nears the coast goes poof. NWS has me at 40% today and 60% tomorrow....color me ...

picture, thousand words; donut hole yada yada....monsoon west, normal summer storms east.

Well I’m not the only one. Looks like Aldine, Jersey Village, Cypress, Katy all got shafted. The outflow just outran it literally as it got here. One of the more painful misses. It looked like a sure thing. Is it just me, or is there something about outflow boundaries that seems excessive or specif...