Todays GFS 12 z now NOLA with a retrograde west and heavy rain all the way back to H-town…way out and will change many times

Next point where it crosses Cuba looks to be 22.5 N 83.5 W but the movement is looking west of that point…am I just misinterpreting the satellite run?

Not sure how its gonna hit next plotted point

Sure looks like center os rolling way more west than north

Is it me or am I reaching….that trough in the mid-west is not digging southeast it is now running east northeast and the ridge is seemingly holding much farther west than expected…am I looking at this wrong. Wondering if the west biased models are seeing something?

Still dont think the models are done moving significantly…now predicted faster forward motion, how does that effect the timing with the ridge weakening and second does the ridge weaken as much if the mid-west trough does not dig as far south? Maybe I am chasing a rabbit down a hole?

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 4:05 pm Influence of the western ridge is also a factor

Ok…missed that…Thanks

Am I wrong? Seems to me this whole direction thing is being controlled by three factors: 1) where the actual low forms and what longitude it moves through the the area of the Yucatán and Cuba…the farther east the more likelihood of it being effected by the combination of the mid-west trough and the ...

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:32 pm This POS can go straight into LA or Brownsville. Don't need a storm messing up the first week of CFB , and I certainly don't want power out in Summer.

I can survive below zero with no power... screw heat indices of 100 plus and no power.

Could not agree more! Lol

Well here is to Bastardi being wrong because I want NO PART of what he is cooking!

Well if not mistaken he was pretty tight on those storms as well as Ike and Rita and Katrina. Obviously the guy likes to run his flags up but there is a reason he has a lot of big energy clients. That said I know he is not infallible by any stretch but his words should be processed…love him, like h...

Well if not mistaken he was pretty tight on those storms as well as Ike and Rita and Katrina. Obviously the guy likes to run his flags up but there is a reason he has a lot of big energy clients. That said I know he is not infallible by any stretch but his words should be processed…love him, like hi...

Waiting on that turn is like playing Russian roulette with a possible monster…just saying at this point one needs to take notice and start looking around and getting your thoughts and plan organized. I would not go into prep till a center forms and there is more runs like maybe Friday…JMO still thin...

Yep…GFS clips the Yucatán and moves storm west to Lake Charles…or looks that way. I think the trend will continue west then correct to the east.

I figure they wont issue the cone till a center forms / closed off low pressure…depends on how quickly it gets its act together. Have not looked at early data on 12z…about too

If the storm splits the Yucatán and Cuba then its LA if it clips the Yucatán than I think its upper Texas LA if it it cuts the Yucatán fairly deep than its south Texas to mid Texas…obviously the further south on the Yucatán the farther south it goes in Texas and Mexico…JMO opinion or maybe gut feeling

Models are gonna be like a gold medalists gymnast…flipping and flopping till a center actually forms…then with hunters and noaa jet getting the upper atmosphere we will have a much better idea.

We have time…a lot to look at with this storm…right now the models are like a sniper trying to hit a target a mile away in a high wind that is constantly changing direction. JMO

Again would not focus on the details....i would focus on the big picture development right now. So many things will change over the next 10 days

I think what needs to be the focus is this: If development happens then the upper atmosphere flow will all make this a western Gulf to Central La. type tropical cyclone of some type and strength. But right now its still a BIG if and we certainly can not focus on direction or landfall. 5-7 days befor...