Search found 28 matches

by Big O
Sun Dec 02, 2012 11:25 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December-Wet/Stormy New Years Eve Ahead
Replies: 760
Views: 330897

Re: December Weather - What can we expect?

Excellent day yesterday! A record 83 degrees made for great biking weather. We rode 45 miles around the city. Was only slightly cool when the sun went behind the clouds a few times. Latest GFS doesn't indicate much in the way of a front Tuesday any more, and nice warm weather next weekend too. Sssh...
by Big O
Thu Nov 29, 2012 3:23 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December-Wet/Stormy New Years Eve Ahead
Replies: 760
Views: 330897

Re: December Weather - What can we expect?

I shared this in another forum, but thought that reposting it in this thread was appropriate: "I asked Fred Schmude with Impact Weather the following questions this morning. His answers provide promise for those of us who really like winter weather. See below: Q: What would the various teleconn...
by Big O
Wed Jan 25, 2012 9:14 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month
Replies: 1330
Views: 577865

Re: January: Tornado Watch/ Slight Risk/ 1/25 With Heavy Ra

The 1/25 0z European teleconnection index forecast is interesting. It show a -NAO, -AO, and positive PNA in the longer term. Prior runs had only shown a negative NAO and negative AO, with a negative PNA. The change to a positive PNA means that a west coast ridge may set up, with a trough across the ...
by Big O
Mon Jan 23, 2012 9:48 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month
Replies: 1330
Views: 577865

Re: January: Slight Risk Central TX 1/24-25 /Storms & Heavy

With respect to longer range, the models are all over the place with respect to the teleconnection indices. I tend to side with the European, which at 0z has a slightly negative NAO, slightly negative AO, and negative EPO at days 8-10. What we need is a +PNA to get things going, but I see nothing to...
by Big O
Thu Jan 19, 2012 4:21 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month
Replies: 1330
Views: 577865

Re: January:Tracking A Storm Threat 1/23-25/Severe Wx Possib

I mentioned this ~5 pages back, but energy sector mets are the best paid, so I'd assume among the best, and natural gas futures are down near $2.30... My co-worker is buying natural gas futures now. I assume this means he thinks that cold air is lurking on the horizon, but I could be wrong. I have ...
by Big O
Thu Jan 19, 2012 1:17 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month
Replies: 1330
Views: 577865

Re: January:Tracking A Storm Threat 1/23-25/Severe Wx Possib

Here's a different look:

Image
by Big O
Thu Jan 19, 2012 1:05 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month
Replies: 1330
Views: 577865

Re: January:Tracking A Storm Threat 1/23-25/Severe Wx Possib

12z GFS Ensemble Mean at 384h sure is appetizing to cold-weather lovers; McFarland Signature anyone:

Image
by Big O
Thu Jan 19, 2012 10:41 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month
Replies: 1330
Views: 577865

Re: January:Tracking A Storm Threat 1/23-25/Severe Wx Possib

To add some fuel to the fire (or should I say "ice"), take a gander at the possibilities alluded to by David Tolleris with Wxrisk.com: http://www.wxrisk.com/2012/01/big-berth ... t-sisters/ I like this part: As you can see from the image it is readily apparent that the NAO and AO have onl...
by Big O
Thu Jan 19, 2012 10:20 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month
Replies: 1330
Views: 577865

Re: January:Tracking A Storm Threat 1/23-25/Severe Wx Possib

Interesting blog post this morning from Chronicle science writer Eric Berger. He quotes ImpactWeather's Fred Schmude who says winter *may* make a real appearance in early February. Read on ... http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2012/01/a-mild-winter-so-far-will-we-escape-arctic-blasts-this-year/ To add s...
by Big O
Wed Jan 18, 2012 3:48 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month
Replies: 1330
Views: 577865

Re: January:Tracking A Storm Threat 1/23-25/Severe Wx Possib

12z European at 240h showing a developing ridge/block into Alaska: http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/15/01181212zeuropean240h.gif This may cause Wxman 57 some "concern." I saw that, but what the image doesn't show you is what's coming in from the west. I'm looking at a hemispheric 500m...