Yeah I literally cannot remember whenever I saw Surface CAPE values that high near our region. I almost want to say never. Mixed Layer CAPE values were extremely high near our region as well exceeding 6,500 J/kg just west/southwest of Cpv17’s area around 2300Z…

Here is a good YouTube video from the Houston Heights that reveals how the winds ramp up during the May 16th storms …

https://youtu.be/kLN50lepxaY?si=rcE8KjFIQHtQJ2U3

It's extremely rare to see Surface CAPE values exceeding 8,000 J/kg anywhere across the country, any time of the year, let alone over portions of SE Texas. Yet earlier this evening between 2100Z & 2300Z, that's exactly what we saw... SPC MAP - SURFACE CAPE - 5.27.2024 - 2100.png SPC MAP - SURFAC...

7 fatalities have been confirmed from the NTX tornado last night :( The NWS probably should have pushed out a Confirmed Tornado Warning or PDS Tornado Warning much earlier than they did for that pariticular storm. Though I'm not sure just how much a difference that would have made with respect to t...

Looks like a mid-cap jailbreak is taking place. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=sp&band=09&length=24 FWIW - the dreaded future radar has a bow echo slamming into College Station about 7:30 pm. Well CAPE is definitely not an issue for your area... SPC...

If anyone wants to see just how bad the winds were the other day watch this video of downtown near the Wells Fargo bank... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agEamWQ2V3s Yeah there’s a lot to unpack in that video. Plus it serves as a great example of why you do not want to be in the Downtown area duri...

Interesting maps of the derecho. I notice the CAPE and Effective Bulk Shear is tight. Yeah I thought so too because they were in the sweet spot for a derecho event. I should have captured more parameters but I didn’t have time while at work. Also, the high PWS values over the area explains all of t...

Effective Bulk Wind Difference (kts) The magnitude of the vector wind difference from the effective inflow base upward to 50% of the equilibrium level height for the most unstable parcel in the lowest 300 mb. This parameter is similar to the 0-6 km bulk wind difference, though it accounts for storm...

A few hours after the storms passed through on Thursday evening, I captured these images from the SPC Mesoanalysis page. I thought they may serve as a good reference for the future regarding some of the parameters that contributed to the severity of the storms... Surface-Based CAPE/CIN (J kg-1) SBCA...

Thanks for posting the Chronicle article about the May 1983 storm. I lived in Oak Forest at that time, and was awake during it. The lighting was as if there were thousands of light switches being repeatedly turned off and on in milliseconds, for what seemed an eternity. The tornado "roaring tr...

Though not quite as widespread as that storm complex back in the day, today’s storms are very reminiscent of the May 20, 1983 storm system with respect to the severe impacts across the Metro area.

The latest Euro forecast is predicting 250 ACE points. Sheesh.. Yeah at this point it’s becoming increasingly difficult to find some blaring failure modes for this upcoming hurricane season. But of course, like I mentioned on Storm2K at the beginning of the year, there will be patterns and unforese...

The latest Euro forecast is predicting 250 ACE points. Sheesh.. Yeah at this point it’s becoming increasingly difficult to find some blaring failure modes for this upcoming hurricane season. But of course, like I mentioned on Storm2K at the beginning of the year, there will be patterns and unforese...

IMG_1968.gif Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0212 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 155 AM EDT Fri May 03 2024 Areas affected...central/eastern Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 030553Z - 030853Z Summary...Brief/localized heavy rainfall could lead to a...

IMG_1965.gif Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0209 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1017 AM EDT Thu May 02 2024 Areas affected...Central to Upper TX Coast...Southwest LA... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 021415Z - 022000Z SUMMARY...Significant flash floodin...

Great forecast discussion early this morning by the WPC emphasizing just how clueless most of the short-term models were depicting the convective evolution of this storm complex yesterday evening through this morning… IMG_1964.png Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College P...

This current storm complex is very reminiscent of the May 2015 Memorial Day Flooding event with this one shifted to the north & east with less areal coverage and a shorter duration as compared to the 2015 event. https://www.weather.gov/media/ewx/wxevents/ewx-20150524.pdf https://blog.hmns.org/2...

This current storm complex is very reminiscent of the May 2015 Memorial Day Flooding event with this one shifted to the north & east with less areal coverage and a shorter duration as compared to the 2015 event. https://www.weather.gov/media/ewx/wxevents/ewx-20150524.pdf https://blog.hmns.org/20...

CAM's or Short-term models didn't do a good job at all with initializing these severe thunderstorms off to the northeast of the Houston area now... COD-NEXRAD-HGX (1).png I think this poorly modeled convection I alluded to last night contaminated the warm sector under the Moderate Risk earlier than...

Yeah according to Pat Calvin this was rated as an EF-1 Tornado. This was approximately 3 miles south of my house…