Search found 154 matches

by 869MB
Wed Apr 10, 2024 12:52 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: April 2024
Replies: 295
Views: 11736

Re: April 2024

CAM's or Short-term models didn't do a good job at all with initializing these severe thunderstorms off to the northeast of the Houston area now... COD-NEXRAD-HGX (1).png I think this poorly modeled convection I alluded to last night contaminated the warm sector under the Moderate Risk earlier than...
by 869MB
Wed Apr 10, 2024 12:38 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: April 2024
Replies: 295
Views: 11736

Re: April 2024

Yeah according to Pat Calvin this was rated as an EF-1 Tornado. This was approximately 3 miles south of my house…


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by 869MB
Wed Apr 10, 2024 11:59 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: April 2024
Replies: 295
Views: 11736

Re: April 2024

Tornado confirmed in Katy last night…

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https://x.com/pcavlin/status/1778097997785526384
by 869MB
Wed Apr 10, 2024 4:12 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: April 2024
Replies: 295
Views: 11736

Re: April 2024

Yeah hands down this is the most intense rainfall I’ve experienced since Hurricane Harvey and the April 2016 Tax Day Flood. The water came up past the mailbox to the side walk…
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by 869MB
Tue Apr 09, 2024 10:00 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: April 2024
Replies: 295
Views: 11736

Re: April 2024

CAM's or Short-term models didn't do a good job at all with initializing these severe thunderstorms off to the northeast of the Houston area now...



COD-NEXRAD-HGX (1).png
COD-NEXRAD-HGX (1).png (2.02 MiB) Viewed 330 times
by 869MB
Wed Apr 03, 2024 11:16 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: April 2024
Replies: 295
Views: 11736

Re: April 2024

It’s an absolutely beautiful morning outside with clear skies, low humidity and temperatures in the 60’s. It would be a perfect day for a Total Solar Eclipse.
by 869MB
Wed Jan 17, 2024 7:44 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2024
Replies: 1566
Views: 96055

Re: January 2024

What are you talking about? No one including the local media was ever forecasting a February 2021 repeat.The only disagreement we had was that the mesoscale models would end up more accurate than the globals when it comes to temps and precip. Which they were. You seem to want to disagree with us, j...
by 869MB
Fri Jan 12, 2024 1:08 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2024
Replies: 1566
Views: 96055

Re: January 2024

The forecast hasn't changed much in CLL. 40% chance of wintry stuff on MLK Day. Highs in the 30s, lows in the teens for 2-3 days. Light ice storm here. NAM with an ice/sleet event. Maybe sleet/snow from Hearne to Marshall? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2024011212/namconus...
by 869MB
Mon Jan 08, 2024 2:18 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2024
Replies: 1566
Views: 96055

Re: January 2024

One thing that has caught my attention about Monday's potential is that the 06Z HRRR has increased MLCAPE during the late morning hours across SETX as compared to its 00Z Run. It may not make a big difference when all is said and done but it is a short-term trend that needs to be monitored through t...
by 869MB
Mon Dec 18, 2023 12:05 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2023
Replies: 320
Views: 31161

Re: December 2023

Yeah and it’s about to start fading away. Neutral conditions will be here by late spring. I don’t this El Niño has quite peaked just yet and fully coupled with the atmosphere yet. Yes Neutral and eventually La Niña are just over the horizon especially for the 2nd half of 2024. But there’s still ple...
by 869MB
Mon Dec 18, 2023 1:27 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2023
Replies: 320
Views: 31161

Re: December 2023

Has El Nino peaked yet or not? Yeah and it’s about to start fading away. Neutral conditions will be here by late spring. I don’t this El Niño has quite peaked just yet and fully coupled with the atmosphere yet. Yes Neutral and eventually La Niña are just over the horizon especially for the 2nd half...
by 869MB
Thu Dec 14, 2023 11:56 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2023
Replies: 320
Views: 31161

Re: December 2023

Hey everyone! It has been a while, but I am back! The fall semester is over and I am officially 3 semesters away from earning my bachelor's degree in meteorology now! Glad to see that the weather pattern has finally become more progressive for the South. The drought was absolutely horrible for area...
by 869MB
Tue Nov 28, 2023 10:02 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: November 2023
Replies: 442
Views: 33153

Re: November 2023

That's a lot of pure streamwise vorticity in that forecasted 00Z NAM 3K Hodograph
by 869MB
Fri Sep 08, 2023 2:34 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2023
Replies: 626
Views: 71328

Re: September 2023

The 9/8 00Z HRRR sounding for 7:00pm shows some elevated CAPE which may lead to some isolated severe thunderstorms with strong wind gusts and a few microbursts across the area if the cap can be broken during peak heating hours on Friday evening…

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by 869MB
Fri Sep 08, 2023 2:19 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2023
Replies: 626
Views: 71328

Re: September 2023

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE...AND FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thun...
by 869MB
Fri Sep 08, 2023 2:00 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2023
Replies: 626
Views: 71328

Re: September 2023

A little off topic. Hurricane Lee is now a Category 5 hurricane. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/080251.shtml 373 WTNT33 KNHC 080251 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023 ...LEE BECOMES A CA...
by 869MB
Tue Aug 22, 2023 1:30 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 79655

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harold Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023 100 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING... SUMM...
by 869MB
Sun Aug 20, 2023 8:47 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2023
Replies: 744
Views: 79591

Re: August 2023

Unfortunately, the mid to long range 00Z GFS run continues with the idea that our hottest stretch of the year will be the last week or so of August. It depicts the heat ridge settling in over the Central & Southern Plains while circulating very dry air into our region from the northeast. Let th...
by 869MB
Sun Aug 20, 2023 6:22 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2023
Replies: 744
Views: 79591

Re: August 2023

Southern California has a lot going on right now...

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