Hurricane Katrina's first rodeo Back in August of 2005, South Florida was struck by a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. The storm made landfall near the border of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties. It killed 14 and caused the 2024 equivalent of $1 billion in damage. It was Hurricane K...

This Week's ENSO Niño 4 0.6ºC Niño 3.4 0.2ºC Niño 3 -0.1ºC Niño 1+2 -0.5ºC https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf All regions cooled, except for Region 3. It remains the same. Hopefully, all the statistical models are wrong at this fort...

This Week's ENSO Niño 4 0.6ºC Niño 3.4 0.2ºC Niño 3 -0.1ºC Niño 1+2 -0.5ºC https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf All regions cooled, except for Region 3. It remains the same. Hopefully, all the statistical models are wrong at this fort...

Hurricane Katrina's first rodeo Back in August of 2005, South Florida was struck by a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. The storm made landfall near the border of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties. It killed 14 and caused the 2024 equivalent of $1 billion in damage. It was Hurricane K...

It's official. The wife and I will be relocating to the north side of Austin over the next month, likely to the Georgetown area. Gave official word of mouth to the new boss on Friday and will sign the papers Monday or Tuesday. Will be trading super humidity for drier, but also trading hurricanes an...

Since everyone is still dealing with the aftermath of Beryl in some form or fashion, this storm is still fresh on everyone’s mind. Now I simply ask everyone affected by this storm to close their eyes for a moment and imagine if 150mph Category 4 Hurricane Laura had struck our region head on like Hur...

If it's a cat 1 at landfall how many people on here are actually going to leave? I plan on staying of it's a ts or a cat 1 maybe a 2..anything at a 3 or above then I would probably leave The problem is that this is a situation where we could see rapid intensification prior to landfall. If the storm...

I remember some people were questioning the NHC, saying they were too aggressive with respect to their intensity forecast for Hurricane Beryl in their 1st advisory. Yet here we are with yet another overachieving hurricane intensifying much stronger than initially forecast. I really hope we don’t exp...

Looking ahead, based upon what I’m seeing from the EFS & GEFS ensembles, the chances of lower pressures occurring in the Gulf of Mexico and along the Gulf Coast States appear to continue through the end of June. I’m making this assumption based upon the higher height anomalies depicted to occur ...

The 6/11 GFS 00Z Run is a very wet run for the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf Coast States. It even has a 29.97-inch bullseye total along the Louisiana/Mississippi border. Be mindful that these totals will shift around as we draw closer to the moisture surge/possible tropical development.... GFS TOTAL ...

Sadly, it's not available any longer. That’s unfortunate. I always looked forward to going on there and catching up on everything. My main takeaway from that place was a poster on there named Wunderkidcayman and how badly he wanted every storm to go towards the Cayman Islands lol Ha I remember thos...

Unfortunately I don’t see much rain on the models in my area. Thank goodness I got almost an inch yesterday. Not so fast with that assumption because there's still a chance you could still receive a good downpour or two later this evening and/or tomorrow morning. That 18Z HRRR run does not capture ...

Yeah I literally cannot remember whenever I saw Surface CAPE values that high near our region. I almost want to say never. Mixed Layer CAPE values were extremely high near our region as well exceeding 6,500 J/kg just west/southwest of Cpv17’s area around 2300Z…

Here is a good YouTube video from the Houston Heights that reveals how the winds ramp up during the May 16th storms …

https://youtu.be/kLN50lepxaY?si=rcE8KjFIQHtQJ2U3

It's extremely rare to see Surface CAPE values exceeding 8,000 J/kg anywhere across the country, any time of the year, let alone over portions of SE Texas. Yet earlier this evening between 2100Z & 2300Z, that's exactly what we saw... SPC MAP - SURFACE CAPE - 5.27.2024 - 2100.png SPC MAP - SURFAC...

7 fatalities have been confirmed from the NTX tornado last night :( The NWS probably should have pushed out a Confirmed Tornado Warning or PDS Tornado Warning much earlier than they did for that pariticular storm. Though I'm not sure just how much a difference that would have made with respect to t...

Looks like a mid-cap jailbreak is taking place. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=sp&band=09&length=24 FWIW - the dreaded future radar has a bow echo slamming into College Station about 7:30 pm. Well CAPE is definitely not an issue for your area... SPC...

If anyone wants to see just how bad the winds were the other day watch this video of downtown near the Wells Fargo bank... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agEamWQ2V3s Yeah there’s a lot to unpack in that video. Plus it serves as a great example of why you do not want to be in the Downtown area duri...

Interesting maps of the derecho. I notice the CAPE and Effective Bulk Shear is tight. Yeah I thought so too because they were in the sweet spot for a derecho event. I should have captured more parameters but I didn’t have time while at work. Also, the high PWS values over the area explains all of t...

Effective Bulk Wind Difference (kts) The magnitude of the vector wind difference from the effective inflow base upward to 50% of the equilibrium level height for the most unstable parcel in the lowest 300 mb. This parameter is similar to the 0-6 km bulk wind difference, though it accounts for storm...