The latest Euro forecast is predicting 250 ACE points. Sheesh.. Yeah at this point it’s becoming increasingly difficult to find some blaring failure modes for this upcoming hurricane season. But of course, like I mentioned on Storm2K at the beginning of the year, there will be patterns and unforese...

The latest Euro forecast is predicting 250 ACE points. Sheesh.. Yeah at this point it’s becoming increasingly difficult to find some blaring failure modes for this upcoming hurricane season. But of course, like I mentioned on Storm2K at the beginning of the year, there will be patterns and unforese...

IMG_1968.gif Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0212 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 155 AM EDT Fri May 03 2024 Areas affected...central/eastern Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 030553Z - 030853Z Summary...Brief/localized heavy rainfall could lead to a...

IMG_1965.gif Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0209 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1017 AM EDT Thu May 02 2024 Areas affected...Central to Upper TX Coast...Southwest LA... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 021415Z - 022000Z SUMMARY...Significant flash floodin...

Great forecast discussion early this morning by the WPC emphasizing just how clueless most of the short-term models were depicting the convective evolution of this storm complex yesterday evening through this morning… IMG_1964.png Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College P...

This current storm complex is very reminiscent of the May 2015 Memorial Day Flooding event with this one shifted to the north & east with less areal coverage and a shorter duration as compared to the 2015 event. https://www.weather.gov/media/ewx/wxevents/ewx-20150524.pdf https://blog.hmns.org/2...

This current storm complex is very reminiscent of the May 2015 Memorial Day Flooding event with this one shifted to the north & east with less areal coverage and a shorter duration as compared to the 2015 event. https://www.weather.gov/media/ewx/wxevents/ewx-20150524.pdf https://blog.hmns.org/20...

CAM's or Short-term models didn't do a good job at all with initializing these severe thunderstorms off to the northeast of the Houston area now... COD-NEXRAD-HGX (1).png I think this poorly modeled convection I alluded to last night contaminated the warm sector under the Moderate Risk earlier than...

Yeah according to Pat Calvin this was rated as an EF-1 Tornado. This was approximately 3 miles south of my house…

Tornado confirmed in Katy last night…


https://x.com/pcavlin/status/1778097997785526384

Yeah hands down this is the most intense rainfall I’ve experienced since Hurricane Harvey and the April 2016 Tax Day Flood. The water came up past the mailbox to the side walk…

CAM's or Short-term models didn't do a good job at all with initializing these severe thunderstorms off to the northeast of the Houston area now...

It’s an absolutely beautiful morning outside with clear skies, low humidity and temperatures in the 60’s. It would be a perfect day for a Total Solar Eclipse.

What are you talking about? No one including the local media was ever forecasting a February 2021 repeat.The only disagreement we had was that the mesoscale models would end up more accurate than the globals when it comes to temps and precip. Which they were. You seem to want to disagree with us, j...

The forecast hasn't changed much in CLL. 40% chance of wintry stuff on MLK Day. Highs in the 30s, lows in the teens for 2-3 days. Light ice storm here. NAM with an ice/sleet event. Maybe sleet/snow from Hearne to Marshall? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2024011212/namconus...

One thing that has caught my attention about Monday's potential is that the 06Z HRRR has increased MLCAPE during the late morning hours across SETX as compared to its 00Z Run. It may not make a big difference when all is said and done but it is a short-term trend that needs to be monitored through t...

Yeah and it’s about to start fading away. Neutral conditions will be here by late spring. I don’t this El Niño has quite peaked just yet and fully coupled with the atmosphere yet. Yes Neutral and eventually La Niña are just over the horizon especially for the 2nd half of 2024. But there’s still ple...

Has El Nino peaked yet or not? Yeah and it’s about to start fading away. Neutral conditions will be here by late spring. I don’t this El Niño has quite peaked just yet and fully coupled with the atmosphere yet. Yes Neutral and eventually La Niña are just over the horizon especially for the 2nd half...

Hey everyone! It has been a while, but I am back! The fall semester is over and I am officially 3 semesters away from earning my bachelor's degree in meteorology now! Glad to see that the weather pattern has finally become more progressive for the South. The drought was absolutely horrible for area...