Interesting maps of the derecho. I notice the CAPE and Effective Bulk Shear is tight. Yeah I thought so too because they were in the sweet spot for a derecho event. I should have captured more parameters but I didn’t have time while at work. Also, the high PWS values over the area explains all of t...

Effective Bulk Wind Difference (kts) The magnitude of the vector wind difference from the effective inflow base upward to 50% of the equilibrium level height for the most unstable parcel in the lowest 300 mb. This parameter is similar to the 0-6 km bulk wind difference, though it accounts for storm...

A few hours after the storms passed through on Thursday evening, I captured these images from the SPC Mesoanalysis page. I thought they may serve as a good reference for the future regarding some of the parameters that contributed to the severity of the storms... Surface-Based CAPE/CIN (J kg-1) SBCA...

Thanks for posting the Chronicle article about the May 1983 storm. I lived in Oak Forest at that time, and was awake during it. The lighting was as if there were thousands of light switches being repeatedly turned off and on in milliseconds, for what seemed an eternity. The tornado "roaring tr...

Though not quite as widespread as that storm complex back in the day, today’s storms are very reminiscent of the May 20, 1983 storm system with respect to the severe impacts across the Metro area.

The latest Euro forecast is predicting 250 ACE points. Sheesh.. Yeah at this point it’s becoming increasingly difficult to find some blaring failure modes for this upcoming hurricane season. But of course, like I mentioned on Storm2K at the beginning of the year, there will be patterns and unforese...

The latest Euro forecast is predicting 250 ACE points. Sheesh.. Yeah at this point it’s becoming increasingly difficult to find some blaring failure modes for this upcoming hurricane season. But of course, like I mentioned on Storm2K at the beginning of the year, there will be patterns and unforese...

IMG_1968.gif Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0212 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 155 AM EDT Fri May 03 2024 Areas affected...central/eastern Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 030553Z - 030853Z Summary...Brief/localized heavy rainfall could lead to a...

IMG_1965.gif Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0209 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1017 AM EDT Thu May 02 2024 Areas affected...Central to Upper TX Coast...Southwest LA... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 021415Z - 022000Z SUMMARY...Significant flash floodin...

Great forecast discussion early this morning by the WPC emphasizing just how clueless most of the short-term models were depicting the convective evolution of this storm complex yesterday evening through this morning… IMG_1964.png Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College P...

This current storm complex is very reminiscent of the May 2015 Memorial Day Flooding event with this one shifted to the north & east with less areal coverage and a shorter duration as compared to the 2015 event. https://www.weather.gov/media/ewx/wxevents/ewx-20150524.pdf https://blog.hmns.org/2...

This current storm complex is very reminiscent of the May 2015 Memorial Day Flooding event with this one shifted to the north & east with less areal coverage and a shorter duration as compared to the 2015 event. https://www.weather.gov/media/ewx/wxevents/ewx-20150524.pdf https://blog.hmns.org/20...

CAM's or Short-term models didn't do a good job at all with initializing these severe thunderstorms off to the northeast of the Houston area now... COD-NEXRAD-HGX (1).png I think this poorly modeled convection I alluded to last night contaminated the warm sector under the Moderate Risk earlier than...

Yeah according to Pat Calvin this was rated as an EF-1 Tornado. This was approximately 3 miles south of my house…

Tornado confirmed in Katy last night…


https://x.com/pcavlin/status/1778097997785526384

Yeah hands down this is the most intense rainfall I’ve experienced since Hurricane Harvey and the April 2016 Tax Day Flood. The water came up past the mailbox to the side walk…

CAM's or Short-term models didn't do a good job at all with initializing these severe thunderstorms off to the northeast of the Houston area now...

It’s an absolutely beautiful morning outside with clear skies, low humidity and temperatures in the 60’s. It would be a perfect day for a Total Solar Eclipse.

What are you talking about? No one including the local media was ever forecasting a February 2021 repeat.The only disagreement we had was that the mesoscale models would end up more accurate than the globals when it comes to temps and precip. Which they were. You seem to want to disagree with us, j...

The forecast hasn't changed much in CLL. 40% chance of wintry stuff on MLK Day. Highs in the 30s, lows in the teens for 2-3 days. Light ice storm here. NAM with an ice/sleet event. Maybe sleet/snow from Hearne to Marshall? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2024011212/namconus...