Camille took a right turn in Kentucky and savaged the Appalachians and Blue Ridge mountains in Virginia. Cat 5 storm energy/warm core + mountains and rocky soil = major flooding.

These daily Thunderstorms remind me so much of the early 1970's, growing up in South Houston. Our local swimming pool opened every day at 1:00 pm. It was staffed by our High School Football coach and lifeguards were the Football players. Every dang day, there would come a storm at around 2:00-3:00 ...

This summer definitely reminds me of Houston summers when I was a kid in the 80s, and I'm in Georgetown and its still acting that way. Yesterday afternoon after the rain felt a lot more like a Florida or North Carolina summer. The current 7 day forecast continues to look more Euro with a chance of ...

Hills, mountains, rocky terrain, swampy, or concrete (e.g., Chicago) are all susceptible to flash flooding. With hurricanes and most storms, water and floods are the #1 killer.

Never, never underestimate warm core storms, especially at night. That's why old salt Mets are an incredibly invaluable resource. They've seen these systems, whether Atlantic or EPAC or Gulf, thwart the models and young buck Mets. OK, we have the Louisiana wave in SETX and drying radar in the Hill ...

Even my phone weather app has gone full Euro with low 90s for highs and a chance of rain over a portion of the next 14 days.

DoctorMu one thing ive noticed in the models this summer, is that they have consistently been over doing ridging over texas, especially the GFS with its bog “ death ridge” idea lol, dont wanna jinx it, but definitely hope that trend of over doing ridging continues for the rest of summer lol Not eno...

I'll allow this.

No Death Ridge on the models/Ensembles for the next 14 day. GFS leans to a DR after that...but GFS and 14 day forecast = lol. the Euro and Euro AI are leaning rainier than the rest of the models.

Your Zen Moment: EURO-AI has a FROPA easing into SETX on July 18.

Never, never underestimate warm core storms, especially at night. That's why old salt Mets are an incredibly invaluable resource. They've seen these systems, whether Atlantic or EPAC or Gulf, thwart the models and young buck Mets. OK, we have the Louisiana wave in SETX and drying radar in the Hill C...

More of this is likely through Wednesday at least.

tireman4 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 07, 2025 12:43 pm The 12:45 Radar

Moisture from EPAC and Gulf systems getting together. I would not be surprised to see scattered showers for days.

This event has devastated me on a level which I cannot remember feeling since Katrina. I was stuck at a NOLA hospital during Katrina and afterwards. This caused all those memories to come flooding back. I know Harvey was horrible, too. I picked up my 11yo daughter from week-long Summer camp on Satu...

CLL NWS forecast has tilted towards the Euro solution. Good choice.

Rip76 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 06, 2025 2:04 pm Texas radar starting to light up.

Yeah, this warm core system is damn stubborn...and has enough energy to leverage daytime heating.

Indeed, Kerrville has another flood warning.

Clouds and rain are still around CLL, despite a 10% chance of rain forecast and forecast by HGX yesterday that the low would be gone. Lots of rain in the Hill Country NW of Waco, including Granbury. This warm core low has not given up the ghost yet. To be fair, post, ghostly tropical systems and mo...

GFS. NWS, Mesos continue to swing and miss. Our 20% yesterday and 10% today became 1.10 inches of rain. Green in July. Prayers still for the Hill Country which continued to flood south of I-20 and west if I-35. For the time being, I'm ignoring all the forecasts, models/ensembles except the Euro. Eur...

^I think Kerr Co. was likely in the original flood watch, but not mentioned in that update. Smart phones should have weather updates. I have to keep in mind that unless someone is a weather geek like us, there are too many nuances and background for the general public to comprehend the potential dan...

This was the NWS forecast discussion Thursday night when campers and counselors in Kerr County were preparing to sleep. Tricky, but was it actionable? Kerr County was not included in the flood watch. How many counselors would have had weather alert from NOAA or local forecasts on their smart phones....

Clouds and rain are still around CLL, despite a 10% chance of rain forecast and forecast by HGX yesterday that the low would be gone. Lots of rain in the Hill Country NW of Waco, including Granbury. This warm core low has not given up the ghost yet. To be fair, post, ghostly tropical systems and moi...